Thursday, February 28, 2008

Real v/s Reel expectations

Dear all,
I am sorry for the prolonged absence on the blog as I was caught up with a few personal issues.
My todays topic for discussion would be the expectation which one would have from stocks.

Firstly, i would like to categorize the investors into categories
1- The lambs- these are the innocent investors mainly retail and majority of them having no knowledge of the markets who are feed upon by the foxes. They are thrashed and straggled to death to never return again to the stocks

2- The hare- speculators mainly who are in need to quick money. Most of them are over leveraged and deal in Futures and Options only and proudly say it. They fail to realise that these trading instruments are mainly for hedging purposes

3- The tortoise- They are the lazy and defensive investors who would buy a stock for years on end rely on the dividend yields

4- The foxes- This is the most important category and includes operators, politicians, FII's and corporates. They feed on the lambs and the hares. They lure them into a comfort zone and before they realize the lurking danger, foxes pounce and make sure the stocks fall by 40-50% in value so that froth is thrown out.

Now one has to decide where one wants to be. A pro after many years can become a fox. But we will be looking to become something in between a fox and a tortoise.

So then what are the realistic expectations one should expect?

I think, one way to look at things will be as to compare the returns given by savings instruments like post office, bank FD or some government bonds. They give an average yearly pre-tax return of around 8-9%.

Through regular research and dedication, i think one can aim to 25% p.a in our markets which is nearly 3 times the returns provided by above mentioned instruments.
I strongly believe that our markets will enable you to earn 25% p.a compounded for the next 5 years atleast.

Before the fall happened, i was being mocked at by people who said they could become rich overnight. Some even say, the stock market is a gamble. I roll with laughter when some says that. It just shows how naive people are and sooner than later, they will also realise.

Also, there is nothing like fast money. The higher the stocks go, more they fall during a bear phase and people who mock and become rich overnight, become paupers.

At such times, these people should undergo lesson in proctology.

Happy investing!

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